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Experts predict a much cooler summer for Spain this year

Across Europe, 2023 was second hottest year of all time and the one with the most incidences of extreme heat

2023 was the second hottest year in Europe

Europe felt the true impacts of climate change in 2023, experiencing the second hottest year on record and setting new extremes. Southern regions like Spain endured up to ten days of intense heat-related distress last summer, termed "extreme thermal stress".

This condition is associated with increased mortality rates, particularly affecting vulnerable populations such as the elderly and young children. Scientists connect this phenomenon to a 20% surge in mortality seen over the past twenty years in Europe.

But Spain could be in for a much easier time this year, according to Copernicus, the European Commission's Earth Observation Service, which predicts that this coming summer should be much cooler.

This is despite the fact that heat records have already been broken up and down the country during January, February and March.

"It is very likely that the months of June, July and August are not going to be warmer than the average temperatures in Europe," said a Copernicus spokesperson.

The reason why the forecasts point to a milder summer in 2024 has to do with the fact that Europe will also notice the withdrawal of the phenomenon known as El Niño, again caused by climate change and characterised by waves of heat on land and sea, in droughts and floods. In the coming months, El Niño should be replaced worldwide by its antithesis, La Niña, which has more cooling effects on the environment.

"We know that large parts of the world are no longer under [the effects] of El Niño, which peaked in December or January. We are now in a retreat from El Niño and forecasts suggest that we are going towards either a neutral or previous state", the experts explained.

More data is still needed to be sure about 2024 but the information we do have shows that 2023 was a year of records, and not exactly good ones.

23 of the 30 largest heat waves in Europe have occurred since 2000 and five of them in the last three years, including those in August of last year. The largest forest fire, the highest sea temperatures and the largest floods were also recorded in the month of December.

All of this caused losses estimated at 13.4 billion euros, of which 81% was attributed to floods that affected some 1.6 million people. Last year, 63 people died in Europe due to storms, 44 due to floods and 44 due to fires.

"This trend is especially worrying as Europe records an increasing number of days with at least strong heat stress and in 2023 experienced a record number of days with extreme heat stress," the report concludes.

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Image: Copernicus

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